Compass Is Building a "Dark Pool" of Real Estate Listings. The Industry Is Fighting Back.
With 340,000 agents under its control, the newly merged brokerage is pushing private listings—and Zillow is suing to stop them. The outcome will reshape how homes are bought and sold.
The Compass-Anywhere deal closed Friday. The regulatory clock ran out. Robert Reffkin now controls the largest brokerage in history—340,000 agents across Compass, Coldwell Banker, Century 21, Sotheby's, Corcoran, and five other brands.
That's not the story. The story is what Compass does next.
Reffkin has been building what critics call a "dark pool" of real estate inventory. His three-phase marketing strategy starts with "Private Exclusives"—listings shared only among Compass agents before hitting the open MLS. Zillow calls it hoarding. The Consumer Policy Center calls it anti-consumer. A New York courtroom will decide.
Zillow sued in June. Their argument: Compass's private listings fragment the market, harm buyers who don't have Compass agents, and violate the transparency that makes the MLS work. They implemented "Zillow Listings Access Standards" in April—blocking any listing not submitted to the MLS within 24 hours.
Compass's defense: seller choice. If a homeowner wants to test the market quietly before going public, that's their right. Reffkin told agents Friday: "There will be no mandates. Sellers decide when, where, and how to list."
The math has changed with the merger. Before, Compass controlled roughly 5% of U.S. transactions. Now? The combined company handled $10 billion in volume last year. In key markets like New York, LA, and Miami, their share is much higher. If private listings become the norm, that inventory stays behind a "velvet rope."
NextHome CEO James Dwiggins warned: "Private listings will go mainstream, taking the industry back 40 years and away from the system we spent so much time perfecting for consumers."
AI Intelligence
DEFAULT TO AITrump's Investor Ban: The Details Will Matter
Trump announced he's "immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes." Invitation Homes dropped 7%. Blackstone fell 4%.
But the reality is more nuanced. Institutions own roughly 2% of single-family homes nationally. The concentration is regional—25% in Atlanta, 21% in Jacksonville. A national ban addresses a local problem.
More details come at Davos (Jan 20-24). Current language targets "institutional investors"—firms that buy and hold rental portfolios. iBuyers, which buy to resell, aren't clearly covered. The definition will determine impact.
The Lock-In Crossover Happened
There are now more Americans with mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. The Washington Post confirmed the crossover this month.
Thirty-year rates hit 6.15% last week—a 15-month low, down from 6.93% a year ago. Median monthly payments: $2,365, lowest in two years. Inventory up 20% YoY.
The structural shift is real: homeowners who bought in 2022-2023 have no golden handcuffs. They can move without rate shock.
Quick Hits
NAR's MLS overhaul takes effect. Eighteen policy changes—the most significant in 20 years. Association membership no longer required for MLS participation at national level. Open listings now allowed at local discretion. Expect fragmentation.
Rocket-Redfin integration complete. "Rocket Preferred Pricing" live: 1% lower rate for year one OR $6,000 credits if you use Redfin agent + Rocket mortgage. The closed-loop threat is real.
Zillow Pro launches AI suite. $138/month for agents. Integrates Follow Up Boss, exclusive Zillow data, and AI-powered insights on when contacts are ready to transact. Nationwide by mid-2026.
2026 consensus forming. Zillow: 1.2% price growth, 4.3% sales increase. Redfin: 6.3% average rates. First year of monthly payment declines since 2020. Modest improvement, no boom.